September 26, 2022
The market continues to find ways to surprise and shock and sometimes make us happy and sometimes disappoint. If it can, the market has a way of provong all analysts wrong at some point. After trading over a $1.00 for the better part of the last almost 8 months
September 12, 2022
Compared to that of the previous week, last week’s market activity, though subdued, was encouraging. In much need of support after giving up over 14 cents and crashing through both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
August 16, 2022
Ten days ago, in this space my headline said “Prices Should Begin To Find Direction Soon” Direction has now been realized as prices have gained significantly– giving growers new hope after we were in the upper 80’s just a few weeks ago.
August 5, 2022
Prices should begin to find direction soon.
Prices have recovered__it’s not yet as hight a recovery as we hope for but we’re currently up over 10 cents from the low.
Prices seem to be “wobbling” mostly between 90 and 96 waiting for more definitaive signals to verify direction.
July 15, 2022
Crop uncertainty has taken a back seat. Economic and demand fears have taken control. Dec futures closed today at 83.71 cents. The chart below clearly shows the blood bath this market has taken in just the past month.
July 6, 2022
With much higher costs this season, this season, the present demise in price is reason for much concern. Profit will depend on marketing (how much is already price., will prices recover and how much, and remaining price decisions) and yield and fiber quality.
June 15, 2022
Dec futures have been ranged between roiughly $1.17 and $1.32 for over 2 months-reaching 3 consecutive new contract highs before taking a downturn over the past month. After making somewhat of a recovery back to the
May 24, 2022
Has New crop met its pre-harvest high? Maybe. But it’s not 100% certain. So, maybe not. No one can say. So, make decisions and manage price risk accordingly.
May 13, 2022
USDA’s monthly crop production and supply and demand estimates for May, released today, show revisions for the 2021 crop and are also the first such estimates for the 2022 crop.
April 12. 2022
A lot has happened in recent weeks. let’s recap some of the major supply/demand and other market factors” USDA Prospective Plantings report estimates that farmners intend to plant 12.234 million acres of cotton this year–up 9% from last year.
March 16, 2022
Costs for 2022 will be extremely high. Also farmers will be doing what they can to trim inputs and costs in hopes that yield can still be maintained. Weather is also a concern as usual but input management now creates a degree of added uncertainty.
January 20, 2022
It has been a very wild last three weeks. Prices have suddenly found new optimism and bullish momentum. To be frankly honest, few could see this coming. Now, few can know how far this will go.
December 30, 2021
Old Crop March futures hit just shy of $1.13 today up 284 points (2.94 cents per lb.). New crop dec futures closed at 91.65 cents– up .35 cents.
November 30, 2021
It’s not just cotton. All commodities and the US stock market as well, are reeling from news of a new virus strain. Should growers be concerned?
November 10, 2021
Today’s USDA reports were mostly neutral to either slightly bearish or slightly bullish depending on your view. Regardless, prices took off anyway. There are some factors in play that production and supply-demand don’t account for or fully explain.
October 21, 2021
The first forecast for World demand or use by the USDA for 2019 crop year (for the period August 1, 2019 through July 31, 2020) was just under 126 million bales, if realized, this would have been a new record high.
October 15, 2021
December futures peaked to close at almost $1.12 on October 7th. This was followed by 4 consecutive lower days to just under $1.04 on October 13.
October 1, 2021
Looking back 6 months, the move to 80-85 was the first pricing action for some growers. It was considered a good price risk management opportunity. Then price (Dec futures) moved further to 90 cents.
September 16. 2021
The strong trend in prices seems to have leveled out. Prices (December Futures) have been mostly in the 92 to 95 cent range for the past month plus. Dec. closed at almost 95 cents on Aug. 17 Followed by a close of 92.3 cents on Sept 1.
August 30, 2021
Most of the time, but not always, prices tend to trend down into the harvest months. It’s called seasonality and for that reason, farmers like to price some portion of their crop prior to harvest. How much varies from farmer to farmer and depends on how much risk he/she is willing to take on an unknown future.
July 30, 2021
A positive spin on things first. This appears to be shaping up as one of those rare and blessed years where most producers will enjoy both a good crop and a good price.
July 13, 2021
Prices continue to show strength. New crop December futures closed today at 88.16 cents–the highest in a month and topping 88 cents for the third time near the contract high.
June 14, 2021
If you feel like you are “behind” in your pricing/price protection and have been waiting for opportunity to get caught up, here you go. We mentioned a couple of weeks ago that prices
June 1, 2021
Years and years long ago, I was attending a conference in Ames, Iowa. It was 105 degrees in the middle of a drought. The corn market went down limit for the day. The reason? It rained in downtown Chicago.
May 17, 2021
The market was down 4 of 5 trading days this week with big blows of down 237 points yesterday and another 208 points today. let’s look briefly at 3 contributors to price action this week.
May 3, 2021
The market (new crop Dec futures) seems to be working its way into a “comfort Zone” of mostly 81 to 87 cents. Ahead of USDA’s May supply/demand numbers on the 12th…
April 15, 2021
From the peak at the near 88 cents in late February to the decline to near 76 cents in late March, cotton price (new crop December futures) are trying to mount a comeback.
April 5, 2021
The hopeful return to the upper 80’s has stalled. The market (new crop Dec futures) was in a downtrend for the month of March and April isn’t starting out any better.
March 29. 2021
What’s happened to all the bullish optimism? The economic and marketing fundamentals have not changed all that much, if any. Yet, cotton is now struggling to somehow maneuver its way back to 80 cents.
It’s been a different tone to the market the past couple of weeks. Have we seen the pre-plant peak? Has the trajectory changed?
New crop December futures peaked at 87.66 cents back on February 24 and then marked another near-peak close at 86.79 on March 1. Since the peak close on Feb 24, prices have trended down—closing down 7 of the 12 trading days since and is looking lower again today after closing at 84.2 cents last Friday.
March 1, 2021
Prices have continued to show upward strength, although down sharply today–putting a halt to 9 consecutively higher days. Cotton futures were down 300 to 400 points today with old crop may at 89.69 and new crop Dec at 84.78.
February 12. 2021
Cotton prices have been highly variable (wild) over the past week or more with triple digit moves up and down for 6 consecutive days Feb 4-11. Typically, this can be a sign of market surprises (good or bad) and/or nervousness.
February 8, 2021
This market is crazy unpredictable and unknown…but so far, in a good way. The multitude of factors impacting price are as complex as I’ve experienced in over 30 years dealing with cotton. This includes: Expected demand growth (rebound) after stunning weakness.
January 15, 2021
Old crop March futures pushed above 81 cents this week. new crop December has topped 77 cents. Old crop was down a little today to close out the week but cotton enjoyed another good week due to several positive reports released.
January 7, 2021
2020 is now in the rear view mirror. We gladly say good riddance as 2020 was not a good year for many and for many reasons. 2021 brings hope of better outcomes. Old crop March futures has now reached the 80-cent area. The recovery in prices since the lows in late March-early April has been phenomenal
December 15, 2020
Last week was the best week news-wise for cotton in quite a while. USDA’s monthly production estimates finally showed the lower US crop that many have long said was out there.
November 20, 2020
Pricing opportunities have now moved to basis the march futures. So, you may notice the futures look to be a bit higher. That’s due to the spread between Dec and March. At present, march is about 2.3 cents higher than expiring December.
After making a long upward run and recently peaking at over 72 cents-the highest price in 9 months ( since January), the market (Dec futures) declines and testing support at 68. Prices thus far this week have gained back to 70 cents area.
October 23, 2020
Cotton prices have now trekked into territory that no one thought possible a few months ago. Not now, not this soon. December futures are now approaches 72 cents and had thus far gained 2.02 cents for the week, 6.15 cents for the month of October…..