The USDA, WASDE March 9, 2021 supply and demand projections for the 2020/21 marketing year put U.S. ending stocks down by 100,000 bales and world ending stocks down 1,146,000 bales from the February 9 estimate.
May and December futures were trading down 250-300 points ahead of the WASDE March 2021 report. While increases in consumption and decrease in production lead to lower ending stocks, futures added another 100 points to the losses in the thirty minutes after the report. The trade anticipated a 100,000 – 250,000 bale increase in U.S. exports which didn’t come, and a 100,000 – 300,000 bale decrease in U.S. production which did come.
The U.S. numbers show an anticipated decrease in production of 253,000 bales. There was no change in exports of 15,500,000 bales, which many think are justified. U.S. domestic use is down by 100,000 bales from last month to 2.3 million bales. This is up 150,000 bales from last marketing year, but down 700,000 bales from the 2018/2019 marketing year.
The WASDE projections show a decrease in global production of 827,000 bales, and an increase in global consumption of 255,000 bales. Projected world ending stocks are revised down to 94.589 million bales.
Globally, production is seen to be higher compared to last month in only one country – Senegal. Production was lower in Brazil (-500,000), Mexico, South Africa, and the United States (-253,000). Consumption is higher in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and Vietnam, but lower in Azerbaijan, Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, and United States. The WASDE projects increased global trade over last year and projected that imports will be higher for Bangladesh (+200,000), Pakistan (+200,000), Turkey (+200,000), and Vietnam (+100,000) and 90,000 bales for Taiwan.